They won't brag publicly. But if the NFL lockout leads to cancelled games, there'll be winners.
By Mark J. Rebilas, US Presswire
Many TV networks could be left scrambling to fill ad time if NFL games are cancelled.
By Mark J. Rebilas, US Presswire
Many TV networks could be left scrambling to fill ad time if NFL games are cancelled.
Like NASCAR, whose playoff races would not air opposite NFL 800-pound gorillas. Or MLB, whose postseason would get a much bigger spotlight. And while no TV network wants to miss selling NFL ad time after last season's historically whopping ratings, not every network should be despondent.
Uncertainty over the NFL lockout —NBC's Cris Collinsworth suggests there could be "no football until at least November" — means that advertisers and networks will proceed pretty normally with so-called upfront TV ad buying next month, with everybody scrambling later if NFL owners and players keep refusing to blink. Cancelled NFL games might lead advertisers that need to reach hordes of males — think beer brands, which calculate you'll buy at least another six-pack for every million beer ads you see — might end up bidding up the value of any unsold ad time on, say, next fall's MLB playoffs of college football. But networks would be crazy to hold back selling much ad time in those sports now for a big bet on a coming NFL apocalypse.
Who might be blindsided, or just blocked, by lost NFL games:
ESPN/ABC. Having overpaid for its money-losing Monday night NFL games, it could cut some losses since networks eventually will be reimbursed for cancelled NFL games. And it has quite the showroom — college football tonnage, NASCAR — for NFL advertisers scrambling for other TV sports to reach male viewers.
NBC. NBC's barely visible silver lining is that unsold ad time on its Notre Dame home games and NBC/Golf Channel late-season golf might become more valuable. But that's small taters for the last-place network, whose spectacular deal for marquee Sunday NFL night games for bargain rights fees leaves NBC thanking the TV gods that it has something that attracts crowds in prime time. NBC has gamely offered spots in Celebrity Apprentice to NFL negotiators on both sides if the lockout is settled soon.
CBS. Would lose those big lead-ins to 60 Minutes and would likely just give Sunday afternoons back to affiliate stations. If the NFL seems hopeless by summer, it should look at moving some of its big SEC games to Sundays.
Fox. Consolation might be increased demand for any unsold ads, and better ratings, for its World Series and new Pac-12 football TV package.
Turner Sports. Has no NFL, and demand could tighten for TBS' postseason MLB. But don't get cocky: Your TNT NBA games could get locked out next season.
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